Garton Global | Weekly Market Digest
Markets held their nerve last week after a rollercoaster few days. Sterling took a knock midweek but bounced back as Reeves held her ground. US stocks soared on strong jobs data and Trump’s tax win, though the dollar’s still lagging. ECB officials hint they’re watching the euro’s strength, intervention talk is creeping in.
Check your positioning and chat to the Garton Global team today.
Last Week
🇬🇧 Sterling Stumbles on Political Uncertainty, Steadies as Reeves Holds On
● A sharp sell-off followed Chancellor Reeves’ Commons distress and Starmer’s initial refusal to back her.
● UK gilt yields surged midweek but reversed as Starmer reaffirmed Reeves would stay “for many years.”
● Sterling stabilised, but fiscal credibility remains in question with tax hikes expected this autumn.
🇺🇸 Trump’s Tax Win and Strong Jobs Print Boost Stocks, Dollar Lags
● Trump’s flagship tax bill passed, fuelling optimism and lifting the S&P 500 to fresh all-time highs.
● US added 147K jobs in June, beating forecasts; unemployment dipped to 4.1%, boosting sentiment.
● Despite upbeat data, the dollar struggled as erratic policy and fiscal fears continued to weigh.
🇪🇺 ECB Pushes Back on Euro Strength as Intervention Talk Surfaces
● EUR/USD strength prompted ECB Vice President de Guindos to warn 1.20 “would be more complicated.”
● Hawkish hints marked the first verbal intervention this cycle, hinting at FX sensitivity ahead.
● Goldman and others turn less constructive on GBP/EUR, citing BoE cuts and fiscal risk in the UK.
This Week
🇺🇸 Countdown to Tariff D-Day as July 9 Deadline Approaches
● Trump expected to ramp up pressure with threats of steeper levies unless last-minute deals emerge.
● Eyes on potential agreements with Canada, Japan, and the EU — or signs of another deadline extension.
● Market mood will hinge on deal flow: a flurry of signings could lift risk appetite, but limited progress may cap dollar gains.
🇦🇺 RBA Set to Cut Again as Easing Cycle Gains Momentum
● A 25bps rate cut is expected Tuesday, with two more likely by year-end already priced in.
● Markets will focus on Governor Bullock’s tone — any hint of a steeper path could hit the Aussie.
● After four months of AUD gains vs USD, a dovish tilt may trigger a short-term correction.
Key Events
Tuesday July 8th
05:30 Australian Cash Rate
06:30 RBA cash rate
Wednesday July 9th
03:00 New Zealand Cash Rate
19:00 US FOMC minutes
Thursday July 10th
13:30 US Unemployment Claims
Friday July 11th
07:00 UK GDP
13:30 Canadian Employment Rate
Key Events
Tuesday June 17th
13:30 US Retail Sales
Wednesday June 18th
07:00 UK CPI
13:30 US Unemployment Claims
16:15 Canadian Gov Macklem Speaks
07:00 US Fed Funds Rate, FOMC Statement
23:45 New Zealand GDP
Thursday June 19th
02:30 Australian Unemployment Rate
08:30 Swiss Policy Rate
09:00 Swiss Press Conference
12:00 UK Official Bank Rate
Friday June 20th
07:00 UK Retail Sales
07:40 Japanese Gov Ueda Speaks
Have a great week,
The Garton Team.
Contact the Garton Global Team and schedule a meeting here: https://calendly.com/n-walsh-garton-global/30min