Garton Global | Weekly Market Digest
Trade tensions are escalating, economic growth is slowing, and market uncertainty is mounting.
With key data releases on the horizon and policy shifts in the air, it’s crucial to review your FX strategy. Stay ahead of the curve by connecting with the Garton Global team today.
Last Week: What Moved Markets
🇺🇸 Stocks and Dollar Fall on Trump’s Renewed Fed Criticism
● Wall Street stocks and the dollar fell after President Trump renewed attacks on Fed chair Jay Powell, urging immediate rate cuts to support the economy.
● Heightened uncertainty over monetary policy drove the S&P 500 down 2.4% and the Nasdaq 2.6%, as risk appetite weakened.
🇺🇸 🇨🇳 Dollar and Stocks Rally on Hopes of US-China Trade Deal
● The dollar rallied for a second day after US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent floated the possibility of a “big deal” to ease trade tensions with China.
● Improved risk sentiment lifted global equities and pressured safe havens, with gold dropping 3.7% and US Treasury yields falling as bond prices rose.
🇬🇧 UK Consumer Confidence Falls on Global Market Strains
● UK consumer confidence fell sharply in April as destabilised global financial markets and rising inflation fears weighed on sentiment.
● The GfK/NIM index dropped to -23, its lowest since November 2023, missing expectations and adding to concerns over the broader economic impact of trade tensions.
This Week: What to Watch
🇺🇸 Trade Uncertainty Persists as Trump Shifts Stance Again
● Trump’s mixed signals on China tariffs raise doubts over the prospects for a swift trade resolution.
● Beijing rejects US claims of imminent talks, with national pride hardening China’s negotiating position.
● Ongoing uncertainty risks further damaging US business confidence and delaying investment decisions in key sectors.
🇺🇸 US Data Deluge to Test Recession and Rate Cut Bets
● Key releases include GDP, consumer confidence, PCE inflation, and nonfarm payrolls, all due this week.
● Early estimates point to slowing growth and softer inflation, with GDP potentially contracting in Q1.
● A weak data set could pressure the dollar and boost Wall Street if rate cut expectations strengthen.
Key events
Monday April 28th
All Day Canadian Federal Election
Tuesday April 29th
15:00 US JOLTS job openings
Wednesday April 30th
All Day German Prelim CPI
02:30 Australian CPI & Chinese Manufacturing PMI
23:15 US Non Farm Employment Change
13:30 Canadian GDP & US Advanced GDP
15:00 US COre PCE Price Index
Thursday May 1st
13:30 US Unemployment Claims
15:00 US Manufacturing PMI
Friday May 2nd
13:30 US Average Hourly Earnings & Unemployment Rate
Have a great week,
The Garton Team.
Contact the Garton Global Team and schedule a meeting here: https://calendly.com/n-walsh-garton-global/30min