Garton Global | Weekly Market Digest
Tariffs are back, rate cuts are nearing, and the dollar’s dominance is under pressure.
With volatility rising across currencies and markets, now’s the time to stress-test your FX strategy.
Speak to the Garton Global team and stay one step ahead.
Last Week: What Moved Markets
🇺🇸 Dollar slipped as fund managers sour on US assets
● The dollar slipped further as a record share of global fund managers turned bearish, citing risks from Trump’s escalating trade war.
● Yields on 10-year Treasuries rose to 4.58% amid a broader sell-off in US assets, traditionally viewed as safe havens.
● Investor sentiment deteriorated, with capital rotating out of dollar holdings on fears tariffs could undermine the currency’s reserve status.
🇬🇧 Sterling slipped as inflation surprise fuels rate cut bets
● Sterling slipped against the euro after UK inflation fell more than expected to 2.6%, reinforcing expectations of a Bank of England rate cut next month.
● A sharper drop in services inflation, closely watched by the BoE, added to pressure on the pound.
● Markets repositioned for looser UK monetary policy, while current account surplus currencies like the euro extended gains.
🇨🇳 Renminbi slipped as exports rose but trade tensions deepened
● The renminbi slipped to its weakest level since September after the People’s Bank of China set a lower daily fix amid escalating US trade restrictions.
● Stronger-than-expected March exports offered little support, as new US curbs on AI chip sales to China dampened sentiment.
● Markets braced for further policy easing, with capital outflows and tech-sector pressure weighing on investor confidence.
This Week: What to Watch
🇺🇸 Trump’s Tariff Whiplash Keeps Markets Guessing
● Markets eye potential escalation as Trump mulls new tariffs on semiconductors and pharmaceuticals post-tech exemptions.
● Investors remain cautious despite a 90-day tariff pause, with recession risks back on the table.
● Safe-haven demand persists after last week’s sell-off in equities, Treasuries, and the dollar.
🇪🇺 Eurozone PMIs in Focus Amid Tariff Tensions
● Flash April PMIs from the Eurozone, UK and US will offer early signals on Q2 business momentum.
● Eurozone activity hit a 7-month high in March, but tariff uncertainty may weigh on April sentiment.
● Soft prints could pressure the euro, though downside may be limited by existing ECB
Key Events
Wednesday April 23rd
08:15 French Manufacturing & Services PMI’s
08:30 German Manufacturing & Services PMI’s
09:30 British Manufacturing & Services PMI’s
14:45 US Manufacturing & Services PMI’s
18:15 BOE Gov Bailey Speaks
Thursday April 24th
13:30 US Unemployment Claims
Friday April 25th
07:00 UK Retail Sales
09:00 Swiss National Bank Chairman speaks
13:30 Canadian Core Retail Sales
Contact the Garton Global Team and schedule a meeting here: https://calendly.com/n-walsh-garton-global/30min