Garton Global | Weekly Market Digest
Markets are resetting as trade progress, geopolitical shifts, and inflation data reshape the outlook. With safe haven demand easing, oil under pressure, and UK resilience challenging BoE expectations, it’s a crucial week to reassess positioning.
Stay on the front foot, speak to the Garton Global team today.
Last Week: What Moved Markets
🇺🇸 Gold fell as US-China trade thaw dented haven demand
● Gold dropped 1.8% in Asian trading after US and Chinese officials reported “substantial progress” in weekend tariff talks.
● Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent called the meetings “productive”, while both sides agreed to lower duties for 90 days.
● Risk appetite rose, prompting a retreat from safe-haven assets and a lift in equities and bond yields.
🇮🇷 Oil fell as Trump flagged progress on Iran talks
● Brent crude dropped 3.7% to $63.64 after President Trump said the US was in “serious negotiations” with Iran to limit its nuclear program.
● The comments came during his Gulf tour, amid reports he may join Ukraine-Russia peace talks in Turkey.
● Easing geopolitical risk pressured oil prices, with markets reassessing near-term supply disruption risks.
🇬🇧 Sterling firmed as UK growth beat forecasts and EU deal hopes rose
● The pound firmed after UK GDP grew 0.7% in Q1, surpassing expectations and reinforcing signs of economic resilience.
● Gains were supported by reports that Prime Minister Starmer is edging closer to an EU deal, raising hopes of improved trade relations.
● The twin boost from stronger data and political thaw helped lift sterling as rate cut bets were pared back.
This Week: What to Watch
🇺🇸 Fed in Focus as PMIs and Speeches Test Market Optimism
● May PMIs (Thu) and speeches from key Fed officials will offer fresh signals on growth and inflation priorities.
● Recent CPI data showed sticky US inflation; policymakers may stress vigilance over upside risks.
● Stronger PMIs or hawkish tones could bolster the dollar and weigh on equities as rate cut bets weaken further.
🇬🇧 UK Data Trio Could Limit BoE Easing to One More Cut
● April CPI (Wed), PMIs (Thu), and retail sales (Fri) will test market expectations for further BoE easing.
● Sticky inflation and firm demand data may reinforce Bailey’s call for a “gradual and careful” approach to cuts.
● A strong set of prints could lift the pound, as investors price in a shallower rate-cut path.
Key Events
Tuesday May 20th
05:30 Australian Cash Rate
13:30 Canadian CPI
Wednesday May 21st
07:00 UK CPI
Thursday May 22nd
08:15 French Manufacturing & Services PMI’s
08:30 German Manufacturing & Services PMI’s
09:30 UK Manufacturing & Services PMI’s
13:30 US unemployment Claims
14:45 US Manufacturing & Services PMI’s
Friday May 23rd
07:00 UK Retail Sales
13:30 Canadian Retail Sales
Have a great week,
The Garton Team.
Contact the Garton Global Team and schedule a meeting here: https://calendly.com/n-walsh-garton-global/30min