Garton Global | Weekly Market Digest
Markets are on high alert as geopolitical tensions and critical economic data take centre stage. The US dollar is under pressure, weighed down by trade uncertainties and slowing growth, while sterling holds steady despite mounting concerns over the UK’s fiscal health. All eyes are now on upcoming inflation and GDP reports, which could trigger major market moves.
Reevaluate your positioning and consult the Garton Global team today.
Last Week
🇮🇷 Oil Price Spike and Geopolitical Tensions Drive Safe-Haven Demand
● Israel’s airstrikes on Iran escalate tensions in the Middle East, triggering a 12% surge in oil prices.
● The rising geopolitical risks, coupled with military actions, prompt a sell-off in risk assets, including Bitcoin.
● Safe-haven assets like the US dollar and gold gain traction, while markets brace for further volatility in the region.
🇺🇸 Trump Intensifies Trade Threats as Deadline Approaches
● President Trump announces plans to send letters outlining new tariffs to trade partners ahead of the 90-day deadline.
● The dollar falls to a three-year low amid growing concerns over a renewed escalation in US-China trade tensions.
● Investors prepare for potential trade disruptions, which could further weigh on global growth and market stability.
🇬🇧 UK GDP Misses Expectations as Unemployment Rises
● The UK economy contracts 0.3% in April, the worst drop in nearly two years, underscoring growth challenges.
● Unemployment rises to a four-year high, exacerbated by tax increases and trade war effects on exports.
● Sterling comes under pressure, with the government facing mounting fiscal challenges and uncertainty about future growth.
This Week
🇺🇸 Fed’s Next Move in Focus Amid Geopolitical Tensions and Economic Uncertainty
● With the US and China progressing on trade talks, the dollar has failed to recover despite strong equity markets.
● Investors are now looking to the Fed’s meeting for guidance, as inflation remains above target and trade uncertainties persist.
● A ‘dot plot’ indicating a single rate cut by December could support the dollar, while two cuts could maintain bearish pressure if the timing is pushed back.
🇯🇵 BoJ’s Cautious Stance on Rate Hikes Could Weigh on the Yen
● The BoJ is expected to hold rates steady at its upcoming meeting, with Governor Ueda citing high uncertainty around global trade.
● Despite sticky inflation, recent comments suggest the BoJ may delay future rate hikes, with the next increase potentially pushed to 2026.
● Traders will focus on forward guidance, and any dovish signals could weigh on the yen, especially if rate hikes are deferred further.
Key Events
Tuesday June 17th
13:30 US Retail Sales
Wednesday June 18th
07:00 UK CPI
13:30 US Unemployment Claims
16:15 Canadian Gov Macklem Speaks
07:00 US Fed Funds Rate, FOMC Statement
23:45 New Zealand GDP
Thursday June 19th
02:30 Australian Unemployment Rate
08:30 Swiss Policy Rate
09:00 Swiss Press Conference
12:00 UK Official Bank Rate
Friday June 20th
07:00 UK Retail Sales
07:40 Japanese Gov Ueda Speaks
Have a great week,
The Garton Team.
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