Garton Global | Weekly Market Digest
Trade tensions are escalating, rate cuts are looming, and currencies are on the move. Is your FX strategy prepared for what’s next?
Speak to the Garton Global team and stay one step ahead.
Last Week: What Moved Markets
🇺🇸 S&P 500 slid as tariff brinkmanship raised fears of hard decoupling
● The S&P 500 fell as Donald Trump doubled down on tariff threats, warning of a 50% hike on Chinese imports.
● China vowed retaliation and fixed the renminbi at a seven-month low, fuelling fears of a prolonged economic split.
● The escalation revived recession risks and intensified pressure on the Fed to consider deeper rate cuts.
🇪🇺 Euro extends streak as dollar ‘safe haven’ status cracks
● The euro rallied beyond recent highs as renewed fears of a US tariff clash reignited demand for the single currency.
● Rising equity volatility and a spike in the VIX fear index pushed EUR/USD higher.
● Sterling at 8 month lows against the euro
🇨🇳 Renminbi weakens as Beijing leans into tariff pressure
● The renminbi slipped to its weakest level since 2007 as China signalled tolerance for gradual depreciation in response to escalating US tariffs.
● The People’s Bank of China lowered the daily fix to Rmb7.209, allowing market forces to push the currency as low as Rmb7.351.
● The move suggests Beijing may use currency flexibility to cushion the economic impact of trade tensions.
This Week – What to Watch
🇪🇺 ECB rate cut expected as trade tensions mount
● ECB meets Thursday, with markets pricing in a 25bps cut amid worsening global trade fallout.
● German fiscal stimulus adds uncertainty, but inflation remains subdued across the Eurozone.
● Euro may stay firm, supported by trade surplus and dollar weakness, unless Lagarde underwhelms on dovish tone.
🇬🇧 UK inflation and wage data in focus for sterling
● Pound under pressure as markets price in a May BoE rate cut amid weaker economic outlook.
● Tuesday’s wage growth and Wednesday’s CPI will be key to near-term policy expectations.
● Upside surprises may temper dovish bets and support sterling; soft prints risk further downside.
Key Events
Tuesday 15th April
07:00 GBP Claimant Count Change
13:30 Canadian CPI
Wednesday 16th April
07:00 UK CPI
13:30 US Retail Sales
14:45 Canadian Rate Statement
15:30 BOC Press Conference
18:30 Fed Chair Powell Speaks
23:45 New Zealand CPI
Thursday 17th April
02:30 Australian Unemployment Rate
13:15 EU Monetary Policy Statement & Refinancing Rate
13:30 US Unemployment Claims
13:45 ECB Press Conference
Questions on how this impacts your business?
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