Garton Global | Weekly Market Digest
Markets stay on edge as economic data and central bank decisions take centre stage. The US dollar faces pressure amid slowing growth, while sterling remains supported by labour market data. All eyes are on upcoming CPI and GDP reports.
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Last Week
🇺🇸 USD Slips Amid Debt Concerns and Manufacturing Data Weakness
● The US dollar fell 0.6%, approaching a three-year low.
● Weak manufacturing data (ISM PMI dropped to 48.5) contributed to the decline.
● Growing concerns over the rising US federal debt and political uncertainty weighed on investor sentiment.
🇬🇧 GBP Strengthens as UK Services Sector Surges
● Sterling strengthened 0.73% to $1.355, reaching a fresh three-year high.
● The UK services PMI surged to 50.9, signaling sector growth.
● Investor optimism increased due to political developments, including the UK’s defence review.
🇪🇺 EUR Weakens as ECB Considers Further Rate Cuts
● The euro weakened as inflation fell to 1.9%, below the ECB’s 2% target.
● Expectations of further monetary easing from the ECB weighed on the currency.
● Market concerns over prolonged low interest rates led to a decline in the euro.
This Week
🇺🇸 US Economic Data to Shape Rate Cut Expectations
● Weak US economic indicators signal slowing growth, boosting expectations of a more-than-50bps Fed rate cut.
● Key data points include CPI (projected at 2.4% y/y) and producer prices, which will test inflation trends.
● A soft CPI print could push rate cut bets further, weighing on the US dollar while boosting equity markets.
🇬🇧 UK Economic Data to Gauge Labour Market Health
● UK PM Keir Starmer’s trade pact with the US gains limited domestic praise amid Labour MPs’ criticism.
● Employment report for the three months to April and wage growth data will be key for market sentiment.
● April GDP data will provide insights into sectoral performance, but pound movement likely driven by broader risk sentiment.
Key Events
Wednesday June 11th
13:30 US CPI metrics
Thursday June 12th
07:00 UK GDP
13:30 US Core PPI & Unemployment Claims
Friday June 13th
15:00 US Consumer Sentiment
Have a great week,
The Garton Team.
Have a great week,
The Garton Team.
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