US tariffs, Eurozone uncertainty, and a crucial jobs report. Are you prepared? Speak with the Garton Global team to refine your currency strategy.
Last Week: What Moved Markets
💵Tariffs Shake Markets as Dollar Gains
● The US dollar rose as markets braced for sweeping tariff measures set to be enacted on April 2.
● Donald Trump confirmed 25% tariffs on foreign-made cars, escalating trade tensions with key allies.
● While US tech stocks rebounded on optimism that tariffs may be softer than feared, analysts warn of broader financial market disruptions as reciprocal measures emerge.
💷Sterling Gains as UK Economy Shows Resilience
● The British pound rose against the euro and dollar, supported by stronger-than-expected PMI data.
● The services PMI hit 53.2, well above forecasts, suggesting the economy is holding up despite fiscal tightening.
● While Chancellor Rachel Reeves’ cost-cutting Spring Statement signalled economic headwinds, markets see the UK as better insulated from global tariff risks, helping sterling edge closer to key resistance levels.
💶Euro Weakens as Political Divisions Deepen
● The euro slipped as markets reassessed Germany’s defence spending boost amid broader EU uncertainty.
● Italian PM Giorgia Meloni’s criticism of EU unity and US officials’ harsh assessment of the bloc raised concerns over political cohesion.
● With the Eurozone in Washington’s tariff crosshairs, investors remain cautious, limiting the currency’s recent gains.
This Week – What to Watch
🇺🇸 Markets Brace for Reciprocal Tariffs
● The Trump administration is set to announce new tariffs on April 2, targeting the so-called ‘Dirty 15’ trade partners.
● Uncertainty remains over exemptions, with negotiations ongoing; a softer stance could trigger a relief rally.
● Strict measures risk renewed selloffs, particularly in equities, while sector-specific tariffs could weigh on pharmaceuticals.
🇺🇸 NFP Slowdown Could Fuel Recession Fears
● March nonfarm payrolls expected at 128k, down from 151k, as government layoffs and cautious hiring take effect.
● Unemployment rate forecast to tick up to 4.2%, with markets watching for signs of broader labour market weakness.
● Weaker data could strengthen Fed rate cut bets, pressuring the dollar and supporting risk assets.
Key Events
Monday 31st March
02:30 Chinese Manufacturing PMI’s
All Day German CPI
Tuesday 1st April
04:30 Australian Cash Rate
15:00 US Manufacturing PMIs
Wednesday 2nd April
13:15 US Non Farm Employment Change
Thursday 3rd April
07:30 Swiss CPI
13:30 US Unemployment Claims
15:00 US Services PMI’s
Friday 4th April
13:30 Canadian & US Unemployment Rate, US Average Hourly Earnings
16:25 US Fed Chair Powell Speaks
Questions on how this impacts your business?
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